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Weather Alert Detail

  • Hydrologic Outlook for Pierce County, Georgia
  • Hydrologic Outlook issued March 05 at 2:00PM EST by NWS
  • Effective: Thursday, March 5, 2015 at 2 p.m.
  • Expires: Friday, March 6, 2015 at midnight
  • ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
    NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
    ...ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING...
    ...EXISTING CONDITIONS...
    IN THE ALTAMAHA...SATILLA AND ALAPAHA BASINS...
    RAINFALL SINCE OCTOBER 1ST 2014 ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAS
    BEEN ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAINFALL SURPLUSES OF 2 TO 6 INCHES AND THIS
    HAS LED TO MULTIPLE MINOR FLOOD EVENTS ALREADY THIS PAST WINTER.
    STREAM FLOWS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MINOR FLOODING IS ALREADY
    ONGOING DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.
    IN THE UPPER SUWANNEE AND ST. MARYS BASINS...
    RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAS BEEN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
    WITH RAINFALL SURPLUSES OF 2 TO 6 INCHES...MAINLY LOCATED IN THE
    HEADWATERS OF THESE BASINS OVER THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP. THIS HAS LED
    TO ABOVE NORMAL STREAM FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND NEAR BANKFULL
    CONDITIONS DURING SEVERAL OCCASIONS THIS PAST WINTER.
    IN THE SANTA FE BASIN...
    RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAS GENERALLY BEEN BELOW NORMAL
    WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AND THIS HAS
    KEPT CURRENT STREAM FLOWS NEAR NORMAL AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF WET
    CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF 2014. ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
    WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THE SUWANNEE BASIN WOULD GET TO
    CREATE BACKWATER PROBLEMS IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SANTA FE
    BASIN.
    IN THE BLACK CREEK BASIN...
    RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAS GENERALLY BEEN NORMAL TO BELOW
    NORMAL WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AND
    THIS HAS KEPT CURRENT STREAM FLOWS NEAR NORMAL AFTER A LONG PERIOD
    OF WET CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF 2014.
    ...LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
    THE ONE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH INDICATES A GREATER
    THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS IS
    SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS WHICH SUGGESTS THE MORE
    ENERGETIC PATTERN EXPERIENCED IN LATE FEBRUARY WILL CONTINUE INTO
    MUCH OF THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE LONGER RANGE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
    FEATURES NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTHS OF APRIL AND MAY.
    THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TYPICALLY DECREASES AFTER EARLY
    APRIL AS THE REGION TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A DRIER PATTERN AS
    INFLUENCES FROM FRONTAL SYSTEMS DIMINISH.
    ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
    TAKING INTO ACCOUNT LONG TERM ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR
    PRECIPITATION...RECENT RAINFALL AND CURRENT STREAM FLOWS...THERE IS
    AN ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
    SPRING. THIS RISK IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INLAND
    NORTH FLORIDA...WHICH INCLUDES THE ALTAMAHA...SATILLA...ALAPAHA...
    ST. MARYS AND UPPER SUWANNEE BASINS. IN THESE SPECIFIC
    BASINS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT BASIN-WIDE FLOOD EVENT
    THIS SPRING SHOULD HEAVIER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL OCCUR...AS STORAGE
    CAPACITY IN THE HEADWATER PORTION OF THESE BASINS IS ESPECIALLY LOW.
    SHOULD NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE
    THE CONTINUED WET CONDITIONS WILL KEEP AN INCREASED FLOOD RISK FOR
    OUR AREA RIVERS MOVING INTO HURRICANE SEASON IN JUNE.
    &&