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Weather Alert Detail

  • Hydrologic Outlook for Lanier County, Georgia
  • Hydrologic Outlook issued March 05 at 2:40PM EST by NWS
  • Effective: Thursday, March 5, 2015 at 2:40 p.m.
  • Expires: Friday, March 6, 2015 at midnight
  • ...Spring Flood Potential Outlook for Southeast Alabama, Southwest
    and South Central Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend...
    ...Above normal potential for river flooding this Spring...
    ...Existing Conditions...
    In the Choctawhatchee Basin...
    Rainfall since October 1, 2014 across Southern Alabama and into the
    lower portion of the basin into the Florida Panhandle has been
    slightly below normal with rainfall deficits between 2 to 3 inches.
    However, with minimal departures from normal and surplus rainfall at
    the end of the 2014 water year, moist ground conditions prevail
    across the basin. Area streamflows along the Choctawhatchee River
    and associated tributaries are at normal levels or slightly above
    normal. Some storage capacity exists given the recent drier than
    normal conditions.
    In the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, Flint (ACF) Basin...
    Rainfall over the last few months has been near normal across most
    of the ACF basin, with some areas in Southwestern Georgia and into
    the western Florida Big Bend receiving above normal rainfall. Moist
    conditions from last year along with recent heavier rain events have
    resulted in above normal streamflow conditions across the southern
    portion of the ACF basin. With near normal precipitation amounts
    further north across Central Georgia, incoming streamflows into our
    portion of the ACF basin remain quite high, with associated
    reservoirs at Lake Eufaula, Lake Seminole, and Lake Blackshear
    slightly above normal pool levels. Retention ponds and smaller
    storage systems across Southwestern Georgia are full, suggesting
    that limited storage capacity exists for future heavy rains in this
    basin.
    In the Ochlockonee Basin...
    Rainfall over the last few months has been well above normal in the
    Ochlockonee Basin. From the top to bottom of the basin, rainfall
    amounts in the last five months have been generally 4 to 6 inches
    above normal with some areas as high as 10 inches above normal.
    Though rainfall in the last 30 days has generally been near normal,
    very moist conditions prevail across this basin. The Ochlockonee
    River is well above normal at the first of March. In fact, in the
    last 45 days, river forecast points above Lake Talquin have spent
    the majority of the time above action stages. Below Lake Talquin,
    flows remain above normal levels. As with the ACF basin, limited
    storage capacity exists across this basin as suggested by pool
    levels at Lake Talquin and many retention ponds being full.
    In the Withlacoochee, Suwannee Basin...
    As with the Ochlockonee River basin, rainfall over the last few
    months has been well above normal in the Withlacoochee Basin and
    upper portion of the Suwannee Basin. Rainfall amounts over the last
    five months have been 3 to 5 inches above normal. Rainfall amounts
    near normal have occurred in the Middle and Lower Suwannee over the
    previous six months. Flows within the upper portion of the
    Withlacoochee Basin remain well above normal and on March 1st were
    near flood stage in Southern Georgia.
    Flows across the Middle and Lower Suwannee are also running above
    normal for this time of year, though flood stages have not been met
    in this portion of the basin within the last six months. In the
    lower portion of the basin, swampy areas and small lakes are nearly
    full.
    ...Long Term Precipitation Outlook...
    The one month precipitation outlook for March indicates a greater
    than 40 percent chance of above normal precipitation. This is
    supported by numerical model forecasts which suggests the more
    energetic pattern experienced in late February will continue into
    much of the month of March. The longer range precipitation outlook
    features near normal precipitation for the months of April and May.
    The potential for heavy rainfall typically decreases after early
    April as the region transitions into more of a drier pattern as
    influences from frontal systems diminish.
    ...Spring Flood Outlook Summary...
    Taking into account long term ensemble probabilities for
    precipitation, recent rainfall, and current stream flows, there is
    an above normal potential for river flooding across the region this
    spring. This risk is maximized across the eastern half of our
    region, which includes portions of the ACF, Ochlockonee, and
    Withlacoochee Basins. In these specific basins, there is potential
    for a high impact basin-wide flood event this spring should heavier
    than normal rainfall occur, as storage capacity in the headwater
    portion of these basins is especially low.
    Should normal to above normal Spring rainfall amounts materialize,
    the continued wet conditions will keep an increased flood risk for
    our area rivers moving into hurricane season in June.
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