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Weather Alert Detail

  • Hydrologic Outlook for Lanier County, Georgia
  • Hydrologic Outlook issued April 17 at 1:15PM EDT by NWS
  • Effective: Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 1:15 p.m.
  • Expires: Friday, April 18, 2014 at 4 a.m.
  • ...RIVER FLOODING OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 18TH TO APRIL 25TH...
    A GULF LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA ON
    FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A BAND OF 2 TO 3
    INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
    AMOUNTS TO AROUND 5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS SOME
    UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND
    AS A RESULT THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EVENTUAL RIVER
    CRESTS. HOWEVER...THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
    RAIN SHOULD PRODUCE RISES ON MANY AREA RIVERS. A GENERAL OUTLOOK
    FOR SOME OF THE MAJOR AREA RIVERS IS INCLUDED BELOW.
    ADDITIONALLY...THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO
    THE WORSENING OF EXISTING AREAS OF HIGH WATER OR FLOODING OUTSIDE
    OF THE PRIMARY RIVER CHANNELS. THE CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS
    ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ARE IN THE 95TH TO 99TH PERCENTILES FOR
    MID-APRIL...INDICATING THAT MOST LOCATIONS CANNOT HANDLE MUCH
    ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
    * SOUTHEAST ALABAMA:
    ALL RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ARE CURRENTLY BELOW FLOOD
    STAGE BUT HAVE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FLOWS. THEREFORE...IT WOULD
    TAKE MORE RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON MAIN-STEM RIVERS IN
    THIS PARTICULAR AREA THAN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE FLOODING
    IS ALREADY OCCURRING. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL OF AROUND 2 INCHES
    WOULD PRODUCE SOME RISES ON LARGER RIVERS LIKE THE UPPER
    CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND THE PEA RIVER...BUT CRESTS WOULD LIKELY
    BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...RAINFALL OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
    COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG PARTS
    OF THE UPPER CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVERS. THEREFORE...THE
    HEAVIEST BAND OF RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE CENTERED
    NEAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO PRODUCE RIVER FLOODING.
    * THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE:
    FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG SOME PARTS OF THE LOWER
    CHOCTAWHATCHEE...CHIPOLA...AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS. AS OF
    NOON THURSDAY...BOTH THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE AND
    THE CHIPOLA RIVER NEAR ALTHA WERE IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.
    FOR MANY OF THESE RIVERS...RAINFALL OF AROUND 2 INCHES WOULD
    LIKELY KEEP RIVER LEVELS RELATIVELY STABLE OR PRODUCE SLIGHT
    RISES. IN OTHER WORDS...THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD LIKELY
    MAINTAIN EXISTING FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS. SOME SMALLER
    STREAMS AND CREEKS COULD HAVE MORE NOTABLE RISES WITH JUST 2
    INCHES OF RAIN. HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
    WOULD PRODUCE FURTHER RISES ON THE MAIN-STEM RIVERS MENTIONED
    EARLIER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL MODERATE
    FLOODING ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER...AS WELL AS THE
    CHIPOLA RIVER NEAR ALTHA. SUCH TOTALS COULD ALSO CAUSE THE
    LOWER PORTION OF THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE TO
    APPROACH OR REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.
    * THE FLORIDA BIG BEND:
    AS OF NOON THURSDAY (TODAY)...MOST OF THE RIVERS IN THIS
    AREA ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT HAVE ELEVATED FLOWS. PARTS
    OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HAVANA AND
    CONCORD POINTS...WILL LIKELY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH
    EVEN LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS OF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. HEAVIER
    TOTALS AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE BASIN COULD PRODUCE
    SOME RISES TO AROUND MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. SLIGHTLY FURTHER
    EAST...THE AUCILLA RIVER AND ST. MARKS RIVER ARE CONTINUING
    TO SLOWLY RISE FROM PREVIOUS RAIN. CURRENT TRENDS...COMBINED
    WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL SHOULD CREATE FLOODING ALONG BOTH
    RIVERS. IN GENERAL...MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
    AUCILLA RIVER WITH MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE ST. MARKS.
    HEAVIER RAINFALL OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OR MORE COULD ALSO
    PRODUCE FLOODING ALONG SOME SMALLER RIVERS LIKE THE
    ECONFINA...SOPCHOPPY...AND STEINHATCHEE.
    * THE SUWANNEE RIVER:
    FLOW CONTINUES TO BE ROUTED DOWN THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND
    FROM TRIBUTARY RIVERS SUCH AS THE WITHLACOOCHEE AND ALAPAHA
    RIVERS. EVEN WITHOUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...THIS ROUTED FLOW
    WOULD LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG
    THE SUWANNEE RIVER. THIS WOULD PROBABLY BEGIN AT ELLAVILLE
    NEAR THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER EITHER
    LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY WORK ITS
    WAY DOWN THE RIVER TO POINTS FURTHER SOUTH. ADDITIONAL
    RAINFALL COULD OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CRESTS OR
    MORE PROLONGED FLOODING...BUT THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS
    THAT MINOR FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AT MOST SPOTS FROM
    ELLAVILLE SOUTHWARD.
    * SOUTHWEST GEORGIA:
    AS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MOST RIVERS IN THIS AREA ARE
    CURRENTLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THEREFORE...IT WOULD LIKELY
    TAKE MORE RAINFALL HERE THAN IN AREAS IN THE FLORIDA BIG
    BEND AND PANHANDLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON MAIN-STEM RIVERS.
    FOR THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AROUND LOWNDES AND BROOKS
    COUNTIES...RAINFALL OF AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES SHOULD BE
    SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING. ON PORTIONS OF THE
    FLINT RIVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL CLOSER TO 4 INCHES WOULD
    LIKELY BE NECESSARY TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING. OTHERWISE
    LESS RAINFALL COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME RISES...BUT CRESTS
    WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE. AT THE KINCHAFOONEE
    CREEK NEAR DAWSON...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN COULD PRODUCE
    SOME MINOR FLOODING...WITH 4 INCHES OR MORE LIKELY TO
    CREATE MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES. ON OTHER SMALLER RIVERS...
    STREAMS...AND CREEKS AROUND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...RAINFALL
    TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE
    INCREASED FLOWS AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF FLOODING...WITH
    THE CHANCES INCREASING MORE FOR RAINFALL OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
    OR MORE.
    FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...REFER
    TO OUR AHPS PAGE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK (ALL LOWERCASE):
    HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE
    OR USE THE SHORT LINK (ALL LOWERCASE):
    HTTP://1.USA.GOV/1J81E3W