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Weather Alert Detail

  • Hydrologic Outlook for Brooks County, Georgia
  • Hydrologic Outlook issued March 06 at 8:59AM EST by NWS
  • Effective: Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 8:59 a.m.
  • Expires: Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 1 p.m.
  • ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST
    AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...
    ...ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING...
    ...EXISTING CONDITIONS...
    RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM OCTOBER THROUGH FEBRUARY HAS GENERALLY
    BEEN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
    BEING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM
    NORMAL ARE AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES. AREAS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
    AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND HAVE SEEN A SURPLUS OF
    RAINFALL IN THIS PERIOD. THE NET RESULT OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS
    THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIVER BASINS HAS RESULTED IN OCCASIONAL
    MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER PORTION OF THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER
    AND THE APALACHICOLA RIVER THROUGHOUT THE WINTER MONTHS.
    ...SOIL MOISTURE...
    SOILS REMAIN MOIST FROM NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL WITH AREA LAKES AND HOLDING
    PONDS STILL RATHER FULL. WHILE CAPACITY IS A LITTLE GREATER THAN SPRING
    2013...THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT STORAGE CAPACITY...AND THIS COULD HAVE
    AN IMPACT LATER THIS SPRING IF HEAVIER RAINS MATERIALIZE.
    ...CURRENT STREAM FLOWS...
    STREAM FLOWS ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
    WHILE ALL RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE...ELEVATED FLOWS NEAR
    ACTION LEVELS CONTINUE ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER. STREAM FLOWS IN
    SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND DOWN INTO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...WHILE A LITTLE
    LOWER THAN AREAS TO THE WEST...REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENTILE RANGE.
    ...RESERVOIRS...
    MOST RESERVOIRS ARE ABOVE THEIR TARGET POOL AND CONTINUING STRATEGIC
    RELEASES TO MANAGE ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS. OCCASIONAL RELEASES FROM LAKE
    SEMINOLE BEFORE AND DURING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS CONTINUE TO RESULT
    IN DOWNSTREAM SITES ALONG THE APALACHICOLA RIVER REACHING MINOR FLOOD
    LEVELS.
    ...LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
    THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED IN LATE
    FEBRUARY SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES FOR BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL
    THROUGH THE SPRING PERIOD. SEE CPC WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.
    FOR THE NEXT 8 TO 14 DAYS...INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
    ARE EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS
    THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR EARLY MARCH. LATER THIS
    SPRING AS THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A DRIER PATTERN COMMON TO
    MID APRIL...THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE.
    ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
    LONG TERM ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES...RECENT RAINFALL...AND CURRENT STREAM FLOWS
    SUGGEST AN ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING
    THROUGH THE SPRING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...CHIPOLA...AND
    APALACHICOLA RIVER SYSTEMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING...THOUGH
    STILL ELEVATED...IS A LITTLE LESS FURTHER EAST ACROSS OUR REGION IN
    THE WITHLACHOOCHEE AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASINS. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
    HIGHEST THROUGH MARCH AND INTO EARLY APRIL. THEREAFTER ...THE INCIDENTS
    OF STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS DECREASE AS THE
    JET STREAM SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
    &&
    INFORMATION USED TO COMPILE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS PROVIDED
    COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION
    CENTER AND THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.
    FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
    FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
    FLORIDA BIG BEND...
    GO TO: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE
    AND UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS ...CLICK ON RIVERS & LAKES
    FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...
    GO TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP