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Weather Alert Detail

  • Hydrologic Outlook for Appling County, Georgia
  • Hydrologic Outlook issued March 06 at 7:26AM EST by NWS
  • Effective: Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 7:26 a.m.
  • Expires: Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 10 a.m.
  • ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST
    FLORIDA...
    ...ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING...
    ...EXISTING CONDITIONS...
    AFTER A RELATIVELY WET WINTER ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH RAINFALL
    AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 20 INCHES MANY OF THE RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGHER
    THAN NORMAL...AND EVEN WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WINTER
    RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA RIVER LEVELS ARE
    STILL RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL WINTER RAINFALL ACROSS
    SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL GEORGIA HAS STILL PRODUCED ABOVE NORMAL RIVER
    LEVELS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WITH SEVERAL MINOR FLOODING
    EVENTS THROUGH THE WINTER SEASON.
    ...SOIL MOISTURE...
    SOILS ARE MOIST ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA FROM THE RECENT FEBRUARY
    RAINS AND MANY PONDS AND SMALL LAKES ARE ALSO FULL...AS ARE MANY OF
    THE SMALLER CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES. THIS SUGGESTS LIMITED CAPACITY TO
    HOLD FURTHER RAINFALL THIS SPRING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN INCREASED
    DIRECT RUNOFF INTO THE PRIMARY DRAINAGE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE SPRING
    AND INTO THE EARLY SUMMER. SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IS
    RUNNING CLOSER TO NORMAL DUE TO A DRIER FEBRUARY.
    ...CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
    STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
    SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN HAS JUST FALLEN BELOW
    FLOOD STAGE RECENTLY NEAR BAXLEY AND EVERETT CITY AND REMAINS
    ELEVATED. ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN
    FEBRUARY HAS MANY RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE SANTA FE RUNNING NEAR
    BANKFULL. THIS HAS ALSO BROUGHT ALL RIVERS WELL ABOVE BASE FLOWS.
    ...LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
    THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/
    ISSUED IN LATE FEBRUARY SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE, BELOW OR
    NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS REGION. SEE CPC WEB PAGE FOR MORE
    DETAILS.
    FOR THE NEXT 8 TO 14 DAYS...INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
    RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
    MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR MARCH.
    LATER THIS SPRING AS THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A DRIER
    PATTERN COMMON TO APRIL AND MAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL
    RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE.
    ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
    RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGIES FOR THE ALTAMAHA...SATILLA...ALAPAHA...
    SUWANNEE...ST MARYS AND SANTA FE WATERSHEDS WHICH INCLUDE THEIR
    ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM TRIBUTARIES SUGGEST THE FREQUENCY OF RIVER
    FLOODING TYPICALLY PEAKS FROM EARLY MARCH THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK IN
    APRIL ON AVERAGE.
    REGARDLESS OF THE CLIMATE FORECAST...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
    FROM ANY SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL EXACERBATE THE ALREADY ELEVATED
    FLOWS WITHIN THE WATERSHED. THEREFORE...BASED ON THE COMBINATION
    OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH GROUND
    WATER CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE AN ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR
    FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA THIS SPRING. SHOULD DRIER CONDITIONS
    DEVELOP THIS SPRING...RIVER FLOWS WOULD LIKELY RETURN TO BASE LEVELS
    AND CREATE A DECREASING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR MAY THAT WOULD CONTINUE
    INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE SUMMER.
    &&
    INFORMATION USED TO COMPILE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS
    PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...CLIMATE
    PREDICTION CENTER AND THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.
    FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND
    FORECASTS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
    GO TO: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAX
    AND UNDER CURRENT WEATHER...CLICK ON "RIVERS/LAKES"
    FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...
    GO TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP